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Fearless (?!) Predictions
Nov. 2nd, 2004 02:48 amThe first of the election returns are in, with Hart's Location and Dixville Notch reporting. Hart's Location split down the middle, with 15 for Bush and 15 for Kerry, with 1 for Nader. Dixville Notch followed its more traditional path, with a 19 - 7 split, infavor of the incumbent.
Still, this combination represents a 4 vote shift towards the Democrats from the 2000 election, in a pair of communites that are more heavily Republican than Democrat.
Even more interesting is that while in Dixville Notch, Bush won, Governor Benson, an incumbent Republican, trailed his challenger, John Lynch, by a 14 - 12 split!
On the strength of these pieces of information, I predict the following:
1) John Lynch will defeat the incumbent.
2) Sen. John Kerry will take the state of New Hampshire, by a broad enough margin that a recount will not be requested.
3) Sen. Kerry will also win the presidential race by more than the polls have predicted.
4) The gap will be sufficient that there will not be a delay in declaration of a winner.
5) I will be mortified if the 3rd and 4th do not come true.
Still, this combination represents a 4 vote shift towards the Democrats from the 2000 election, in a pair of communites that are more heavily Republican than Democrat.
Even more interesting is that while in Dixville Notch, Bush won, Governor Benson, an incumbent Republican, trailed his challenger, John Lynch, by a 14 - 12 split!
On the strength of these pieces of information, I predict the following:
1) John Lynch will defeat the incumbent.
2) Sen. John Kerry will take the state of New Hampshire, by a broad enough margin that a recount will not be requested.
3) Sen. Kerry will also win the presidential race by more than the polls have predicted.
4) The gap will be sufficient that there will not be a delay in declaration of a winner.
5) I will be mortified if the 3rd and 4th do not come true.
